The eruption of war in the Middle East in late February 2026, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, rapidly escalated into a regional conflict with significant repercussions for food systems across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. The most critical development has been the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in early March, halting over 80% of maritime traffic.
Impact on Energy, Fertilizer, and Food Supplies
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global oil (20% of supply), liquefied natural gas, and about one-third of fertilizer trade, including urea and ammonia. The closure has disrupted these flows, causing fertilizer price surges by 40-60%, which will likely drive global food cost increases. Over 70% of the GCC’s food imports, including grains, perishables, and inputs, typically transit this route. As a result, GCC states have had to activate emergency measures, reroute logistics, and strengthen food system resilience.
Food Security Measures Across the GCC
Saudi Arabia, heavily reliant on food imports (80-85%), leverages strategic stockpiles covering several months and aims to boost domestic production through advanced farming and international investments. The UAE, importing 85% of food, has diversified suppliers and expanded airfreight and logistical capacities to sustain supply, supported by its National Food Security Strategy 2051. Qatar enhanced its reserves and logistics following past crises, activating multi-border customs guarantees and increasing airfreight despite cost rises. Oman capitalizes on its ports outside Hormuz for alternative import routes, while Bahrain and Kuwait face greater vulnerabilities due to limited reserves and suspended port operations, leading to significant price hikes, especially for perishables.
Logistics and Airfreight Adjustments
The closure has paralyzed Gulf maritime logistics; major ports like Jeddah, Fujairah, and Salalah are handling diverted shipments, but long overland routes and constrained cold chains add complexity and costs. Recent Iranian attacks on alternative ports have heightened insecurity. Airfreight has become critical for high-value fresh foods, with carriers increasing flights from key origin regions, but air cargo capacity is limited and costs have jumped 20-30%, placing pressure on retailers and consumers alike.
Prospects for Resilience and Collaboration
The GCC continues to focus on strengthening resilience by expanding controlled-environment agriculture, investing in cold chain infrastructure, and harmonizing regional food security policies. These initiatives aim to reduce dependency on vulnerable maritime routes and stabilize supply chains. International partnerships and technological innovation, particularly in post-harvest solutions and agritech, are viewed as essential for future food security amidst ongoing geopolitical challenges.
As the conflict persists, vigilant monitoring and agile policy responses will be necessary to safeguard food availability and economic stability across the Gulf region.